The Bigger Picture

Every few years, someone writes the obituary for the DC housing market. And every time, the market proves them wrong.

Federal uncertainty? We have been through shutdowns, sequestrations, and administration transitions before. The DMV has over 300,000 private-sector employers, a $600 billion regional GDP, and some of the highest household incomes in the country. The federal government is one part of this economy — an important part — but it is not the whole story. Not even close.

What makes this market resilient is what has always made it resilient: constrained land supply, world-class schools, an educated workforce, and a depth of employment across government, defense, technology, healthcare, and professional services that no other American city can match. Those fundamentals do not change with a news cycle.

Here is what I find most encouraging right now. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act passed the Senate 89-10 in March and the House 390-9 in February — the most significant federal housing legislation since 1990. It streamlines permitting, creates programs for converting vacant commercial space into housing, and modernizes FHA loan limits. This is a genuinely bipartisan signal that Washington is prioritizing homeownership. If you are buying or selling in this region, that matters.

Mortgage rates are in the mid-6% range — higher than a few weeks ago, lower than a year ago. They will continue to move. But here is the perspective I share with my clients: people who bought in the mid-6% range in every prior cycle built significant equity over the following decade. The rate you lock today is not the rate you carry forever. It is the price of entry into a market that has appreciated roughly 60% since 2015.

The buyers who are winning right now are not the ones waiting for a perfect number on a screen. They are the ones who understand that the combination of more inventory, motivated sellers, and genuine negotiating leverage is a window — and windows do not stay open indefinitely.

The DMV's fundamentals have a way of holding. They are holding now.